Decatur, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

745
FXUS64 KHUN 142355
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
655 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Towering cu has started to form along and north of the TN state
line and a single thunderstorm has developed over western
Lauderdale county. The threat for thunderstorms will increase
during peak heating hours and will persist through the early
evening. There is no evidence to make us think coverage will be
higher than anticipated earlier in the day, so we have maintained
PoPs at 30-40%. The primary threat with any storms will be
localized flooding and frequent lightning. No major adjustments
were made during the afternoon update.

Previous discussion:
The main threat/concern today will be localized flooding as we
remain in a very moisture rich airmass and forcing is enhanced a
positively tilted upper trough tracks east over the area today and
tonight. We will keep 40-50% chances for rain and thunderstorms
today with the best chances in the afternoon and early evening
hours. Rain chances will decrease after sunset and we expect a
mostly dry overnight period. Highs will reach the upper 80s/lower
90s this afternoon with heat indices in the 96-103 degree range.
Please practice heat safety if spending time outdoors as well as
keeping up with the latest forecast as we do have the threat for
thunderstorms and flooding this afternoon.

Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s and widespread dense fog
will be possible once again. Conditions will be monitored
overnight in case a Dense Fog Advisory is needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The pattern will begin to shift in the short term period as a pair
of high pressure systems, one over the Gulf and the other over the
central Plains into the Ozarks. This will begin to push the more
humid airmass to our south and large scale subsidence will become
the dominating factor. As the thunderstorm chances decrease, the
heat indices will inversely increase to the 100-105 degree range
Friday and Saturday. As of now, coverage does not appear to be
widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory and trends have not
changed much over the past several days. Overnight lows will be
near seasonal norms in the lower 70s. Thunderstorm chances will
top out in the 25-45% range with greater chances east of I-65 on
Friday. Dry conditions are forecast on Saturday, so a hot but dry
start to the weekend!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will persist over
the Tennessee Valley through much of the long term period. Overall
subsidence will keep chances of showers and storms low Sunday
through Tuesday. The main concern for this time frame will
therefore be the heat as forecast highs climb back into the lower
to mid 90s with dew points in the 70s. This will lead to heat
indices in the 98-104 degree range, with the highest values
generally along and west of I-65 (especially for urban areas).
While these values remain below Heat Advisory criteria at this
time, we will continue to monitor trends in case this changes and
guidance trends warmer. Regardless, we urge everyone to remember
heat safety! Please drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in
the shade, and never leave people or pets in vehicles!

By midweek, an upper low over the Gulf coast will shift north and
weaken the aforementioned ridge. Chances of showers and storms
will then increase for the local area and slightly cooler
temperatures (highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s) will follow as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Observed conditions are currently VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals,
with few Cu beneath sct-bkn layers of mid/high-lvl clouds and a
light SSE wind. Although a few convective cells may continue to
develop across the region early this evening as a weakening upper-
lvl trough approaches from the NW, most CAMs suggest that this
activity will dissipate btwn 3-4Z and should not present an impact
at either airport. However, if more widespread convection
(currently across eastern MS) can generate a northeastward-moving
outflow boundary, coverage of SHRA/TSRA will be notably higher and
may continue at least periodically for much of the night. At this
point, we will stick with a consensus solution and maintain a dry
forecast, but amendments for convection may become necessary
later this evening. In spite of a moist boundary layer and calm
winds, nocturnal BR/FG development may be impeded by a mass of
high-lvl debris clouds that will spread northeastward this
evening. For this reason, we will not include TEMPO groups for
vsby reductions, but these may be introduced in the 6Z update.
Isolated widely scattered showers/storms should redevelop once
again by 17-18Z Friday, but with uncertainty regarding coverage we
will not introduce PROB30 groups in the TAFs attm.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...70/DD